Fixed Does Not Mean Available

Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21,000,000 coins.

That number is technically correct.
It is not economically useful.

Because:

• Millions are permanently lost.

• Millions have not moved in years.

• Millions are held in long-term conviction storage.

• Millions are locked as collateral.

• Millions are held by entities that are not sellers.

The number that matters is not total supply.

It is sellable supply.

And sellable supply is behavioral.

We do not observe it directly.
We infer it.

Structural Supply vs Sellable Supply

To read Bitcoin properly, you must separate two layers:

Structural Supply

Coins that are functionally unavailable:

• Lost coins

• Long-dormant coins

• Strategic treasury holdings

• Deep cold storage

• Sovereign or institutional reserves

These coins exist.

But they do not trade.

Sellable Supply

Coins that could move if price incentivizes it.

This pool expands and contracts.

When it shrinks quietly, pressure builds.
When it expands suddenly, volatility follows.

Sellable supply is dynamic.
Structural supply is persistent.

Understanding the difference changes how you interpret every market move.

How We Read Supply

We do not try to count coins precisely.

We observe evidence.

We triangulate using:

• Exchange balances

• Long-Term Holder behavior

• Realized profit and loss metrics (SOPR)

• Dormancy and coin age data

• Net flows

We do not claim to know inventory.

We read pressure.

We observe evidence that sellable supply is shrinking or returning.
We read pressure, not inventory.

This prevents narrative drift.
It keeps analysis grounded.

Supply Is Slow. Liquidity Is Fast.

Supply tightens gradually.

Liquidity moves quickly.

When tightening supply meets expanding liquidity, price does not rise politely.

It reprices.

That is the mechanism behind major Bitcoin expansions.

Not a calendar cycle.
Not superstition.
Constraint meeting capital.

Why This Cycle Is Structurally Different

Previous cycles were driven by:

• Halving-driven issuance reduction

• Retail participation waves

• Early institutional entry

Today the landscape includes:

• Spot ETFs

• Corporate treasury adoption

• Retirement account access

• Bank custody integration

• Sovereign-level discussion

The scale of potential capital is larger.

If demand broadens while sellable supply remains thin, price must adjust.

Not because of hype.

Because of math.

What Supply Alone Cannot Tell You

Supply can tell you:

• Whether pressure is building

• Whether distribution is expanding

• Whether coins are tightening or returning

Supply cannot tell you:

• When liquidity will arrive

• The exact timing of repricing

• Short-term volatility

Supply is one pillar.

Liquidity is the other.

And their interaction determines Market State.

The Structural Flow

Supply → Liquidity → Market State → Price

If you only study price, you react.
If you study supply and liquidity, you interpret.

That is the difference between noise and structure.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin’s total supply is fixed.

Bitcoin’s sellable supply is not.

Understanding that difference is the first step in reading Bitcoin beyond the four-year cycle.

The Four Pillars of Bitcoin

Bitcoin can only be understood by studying four forces:

Supply – The structural side of Bitcoin
Liquidity – The energy behind price moves
Ownership – Who holds Bitcoin
Market State – The overall environment

Together, they explain Bitcoin beyond the four-year cycle.